-President Bouteflikas ability to govern and stay in power to finish his fourth term (2014-2019), continues to be debated in the political scene of Algeria. However a consolidated political system effectively retains power. Recent upcoming Legislative Elections did not to bring any changes the political environment which promotes arguments in favor of political stability and social peace to ensure the continuation of Bouteflikas rule.
-Terrorism is a risk in Algeria as various groups operate throughout the country and at its borders; however the Algerian military effectively maintain a large deployment of forces to prevent potential infiltration of militants.
-Ahead of the Parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Sellal expressed concerns over the crisis due to the decline in oil revenues. During a visit to the wilaya of Medea on 30 April he openly admitted that \”the financial resources of the country no longer satisfy all the demands of citizens.\” Algeria will need a different management of the resources, which must be directed towards the sectors that create wealth; for the time being, a number of projects will need to be postponed or cancelled. The Governor of the Central Bank of Algeria, Mohamed Loukal also expressed concerns during a recent address to the government. He highlighted the downward trend of foreign reserves which amounted to US$ 144,130bn in 2015 and dropped by 34, 8 billion dollars from the 2014 figure of US$ 178,940bn.The economic downturn continues to affect the Algerian Foreign Reserves which decreased from US$ 114.1bn at the end of December 2016 to US$109.2bn at the end of February 2017 – US$ 5 billion in just two months. Inflation has reached 8.1% in January 2017 (year-on-year) increasing from 4.8% in 2015 to 6.4% in 2016 and unemployment remains particularly high among the youth (26.7%).
Algerian stability could fall with the oil prices. Foreign reserves have helped so far minimize the effects. The government suspended major development projects, implemented a new Finance Bill which involves a reduction in ministerial budgets, cuts on subsidies and encourages a diversification of the economy. Oil and gas account for 95% of Algerian exports and some 60% of government revenues. A 1986 oil price shock necessitated austerity measures including severe cuts to core subsidies for health, education, and housing, which hit the lower and middle classes hard and contributed to a popular and bloody uprising in October 1988. Social unrest at that time fueled the rise of Islamists, who, in the face of subsequent repression, went on to wage a decade-long insurgency against the government.
I basic need a power point presentation (no more than 5 slides) to outline potential impact on Algerian stability by the fall of oil prices. I will also need speaker notes (no more than 8 minutes, so I figured about 1300 words). I will provide more details to the writer once selected.
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